• Chris Jewell's avatar
    Change to Rt calculation to fix discretisation error · 35f04b91
    Chris Jewell authored
    Investigation showed that the high rate of cases in the UK in January
    caused a significant discretisation error between the chain binomial
    model and continuous time analogues.  The previous Rt calculation
    made use of a continuous time approximation, and so gave biased
    estimates of Rt.
    
    The new implementation calculates Rt using expectations of the chain
    binomial model in terms of transition probabilities, not rates as
    previously.
    35f04b91
model_spec.py 8.84 KB